However, there were also failures. Assumptions are a necessary component of the intelligence process (as in everyday life), as they fill in the gaps of missing information needed to make decisions. Whatever endeavor did not work, learn why it did not work. The commission also added additional analytic responsibilities to the portfolios of both the Mossad and Ministry of Foreign Affairs.The Israeli failure to recognize and respond to key intelligence indicators was not the first, nor the last time a misconception has proved fatal. Deep learning has made significant achievements in many application areas. Among the many aftershocks of this fateful clash, the hardest for Israel to digest was Syria and Egypt’s successful strategic and tactical deception, and the failure of the Israeli intelligence community (IC) to provide the necessary warning, despite having sufficient intelligence indicators. To train and test models more efficiently, enterprise developers submit and run their deep learning programs on a shared, multi-tenant platform. Although intelligence failures can never be eliminated, the IC has learned from its mistakes by developing what Peter Gill and Mark Phythian describe as “intelligence learning”, which has reduced failures at the level of collection and analysis.

Ultra, along with broader Allied signals intelligence prowess enabled a swifter path to victory. Yet, despite many lessons learned—which resulted in substantial structural changes, both in Israel and intelligence communities worldwide— the danger of relying on unchallenged basic assumptions remains. Markaz The fog of certainty: Learning from the intelligence failures of the 1973 war Dror Michman and Yael Mizrahi-Arnaud Monday, October 23, 2017 “The concept” refers to the Israeli IC assessment that the probability of war between Arab nations and Israel was low. JOHN HOLLISTER HEDLEY Learning from Intelligence Failures The Russians have a host of sayings, and one that seems pertinent goes like this: ‘‘If you see a Bulgarian on the street, beat him up. A successful surprise attack, where territory could be held for only a few days, should be enough for the superpowers to intervene and force the parties to the negotiating table. This professional failure was due largely to what became known as the “concept”—a preconception held by the Israeli IC, which dictated that the Arab states would not initiate a war against Israel that they could not win. The Egyptians were willing to take losses on the battlefield in order to win at the negotiating table, therefore redefining the parameters of victory. Erik J. Dahl (Georgetown University Press, 2013) 277 pp., endnotes, bibliography, index and Constructing Cassandra—Reframing Intelligence Failure at the CIA, 1947–2001 Milo Jones and Philippe Silberzahn (Stanford University Press, 2013) 375 pp., endnotes, bibliography, index.


Post was not sent - check your email addresses! The main factors contributing to this complexity are the increasingly fast-paced nature of world events; the growing number of relevant participants in any given process; and the multiplying interactions between them. Add to My Bookmarks Export citation. Only through comprehending the nature of perception, and the inherent limitations and pitfalls involved in processing ambiguous information, can we mitigate the dangers inherent in assumptions and preconceptions. However, some of the programs fail after a long execution time due to code/script defects, which reduces the development productivity and wastes expensive resources […] Intelligence attempts to elucidate the unknown. Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email.
The secret is using your failure to help you succeed by learning something from it.

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