Both scenarios assume constant oil prices of $55/barrel. Maps & GIS In contrast, trade, service, transportation, and infrastructure industries accounted for 51 percent of GDP but 66 percent of employment. As shown in the graph, we project a decline in total employment of about 2 percent during 2016 and 2017 as a result of cuts to the state capital budget which have already occurred but have not yet been reflected in actual capital spending.What the graph does not show is the economic impacts of the inevitable further state adjustments to the budget deficit over the next few years, which will have to include some significant combination of spending cuts, new revenues, and/or reallocation of Permanent Fund dividends. However, our goal is not to argue that the projections will necessarily come true. That revision means that President Donald Trump did barely achieve the goal of 3% growth in 2018, helped significantly by a boost from his December 2017 tax cut.The revisions showed that the 3% growth in 2018 was the strongest annual growth since a revised 3.1% gain in 2015, when Barack Obama was president. This suggests that declining government employment—which accounts for 23 percent of Alaska employment and 31 percent of total wage and salary income—may end or reverse a long period of growth in Alaska employment.Factors Affecting Alaska’s Near-Term Economic OutlookIn the near term—over the next few years—three factors appear most likely to drive change in Alaska’s economy, all of which are uncertain and difficult to project. It is very difficult to predict how these industries will change over time, given their dependence on highly variable international market conditions as well as federal and state political and regulatory decisions. Basic sectors and industries sell goods and services primarily to markets outside Alaska and thus bring money into the economy (the federal government is “basic” because federal spending in Alaska is paid for from outside Alaska).

There are many guided activities that provide a way for visitors to access these experiences and for local and multi-national companies alike to conduct business. State spending has also fallen since 2013, but not as far or as fast as revenues, resulting in large deficits which the state has funded by drawing down savings reserves. When they are felt, they will have significant economic impacts. Federal subsidies are also an important part of the economy, allowing the state to keep taxes low. In the 2013 fishing season, Alaskan fishers were able to accumulate a total of 5.8 billion pounds of seafood, which equates to an evaluation of $1.9 billion, a small, but noticeable increase in comparison to 2012, which had a total of 5.3 billion and $1.7 billion respectively.Agriculture represents only a very small fraction of the Alaskan economy.
However, when the deficit has been significantly reduced, employment rates should rebound to continue the low but positive historical trend—with significantly higher growth rates if an LNG project occurs.Our projections are of course speculative.

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